Foerx Tarding

 

TABLE 3.1	Nonfarm Payroll 2006–2014
Date
11/30/14	321,000
10/31/14	243,000
9/30/14	271,000
8/31/14	203,000
7/31/14	243,000
6/30/14	267,000
5/31/14	229,000
4/30/14	304,000
3/31/14	203,000
2/28/14	222,000
1/31/14	144,000
12/31/13	84,000
11/30/13	274,000
10/31/13	237,000
9/30/13	164,000
8/31/13	202,000
7/31/13	149,000
6/30/13	201,000
5/31/13	199,000
4/30/13	203,000
3/31/13	141,000
2/28/13	280,000
1/31/13	197,000
12/31/12	214,000
11/30/12	203,000
10/31/12	225,000
9/30/12	161,000
8/31/12	150,000
7/31/12	160,000
6/30/12	88,000
5/31/12	110,000
4/30/12	96,000
3/31/12	243,000
2/29/12	226,000
1/31/12	360,000
12/31/11	196,000
11/30/11	164,000
10/31/11	183,000
9/30/11	221,000
8/31/11	122,000
7/31/11	106,000
6/30/11	217,000
5/31/11	102,000
4/30/11	322,000
3/31/11	212,000
2/28/11	168,000

 

                  The fear of deflation was so great that in June 2014, the European Central Bank cut interest rates to record lows and actually charged banks for holding funds as a tactic  to stimulate lending bank money out. Forex traders need to keep in mind that in trading the USDJPY and the EURUSD, the fear of deflation attracts capital away from those countries and toward the US dollar. The result is a weakening of the currency against the dollar. Global markets will expect that both of these currencies need to weaken to generate inflation and avoid deflation. Ignoring the underlying lurking threat of deflation by those who trade these currencies will increase being in the wrong direction. The price direction favors weakening over strengthening for these pairs. This doesn’t mean that the USDJPY or EURUSD pair will never have uptrends, but weakening expectations are likely to dominate until inflation reaches 2 percent annualized levels.

 

TABLE 3.1	(Continued)
Date
1/31/11		70,000
12/31/10		71,000
11/30/10		137,000
10/31/10		241,000
9/30/10		−57,000
8/31/10		−42,000
7/31/10		−61,000
6/30/10		−122,000
5/31/10		516,000
4/30/10		251,000
3/31/10		156,000
2/28/10		−50,000
1/31/10		18,000
12/31/09		−283,000
11/30/09		−6,000
10/31/09		−198,000
9/30/09		−227,000
8/31/09		−216,000
7/31/09		−327,000
6/30/09		−467,000
5/31/09		−354,000
4/30/09		−684,000
3/31/09		−826,000
2/28/09		−701,000
1/31/09		−798,000
12/31/08		−697,000
11/30/08		−765,000
10/31/08		−474,000
9/30/08		−452,000
8/31/08		−259,000
7/31/08		−210,000
6/30/08		−172,000
5/31/08		−182,000
4/30/08		−214,000
3/31/08		−80,000
2/29/08		−86,000
1/31/08		15,000
12/31/07		97,000
11/30/07		118,000
10/31/07		82,000
9/30/07		85,000
8/31/07		−16,000
7/31/07		−33,000
6/30/07		71,000
5/31/07		144,000
4/30/07		78,000
3/31/07		188,000
2/28/07		88,000
1/31/07		238,000